Thursday, 27 September 2012

Nifty Page:27-09-2012

Pre-Market:
The rising trendline is intact on Daily charts and the closing has been above 5DMA:

It is these two factors(TL not been broken & closing sbove 5DMA) that most of technical experts are calling it buy on dips market. In addition, a few other arguments are also being given:
1. Despite poor global sentiments we didnot fall during last two days;
2.Political instability has been ignored;
3. Govt. has developed new resolve for reforms and so foreign fund inflow is likely to increase.

And that has made me a kind of loner---

But my shorts have made me money during last three trading sessions and each session is putting more pressure on my friends with bullish view because:
1. The negative divergence on hour charts while making a new top at 5720(vis-a-vis previous top at 5650);
2.5/10 ema cross-over on hour charts(particular striking for those who ignored the MACD 5,34,5 bearish cross earlier);
3.Breaking of rising trendline on the Hour charts;
4.Lower lows and lower highs during last three trading days.
However two things need mentioning here:
The breaking of trendline lows on Hour charts is looking more a result of time action and less of price action;
and
till we start trading below 34hr ema or 5DMA reversal can not be said to be confirmed.
Stop-loss for positional shorts remains at 5721

EOD Post:
Posting two charts so that the pre-market and EOD charts can be compared:
Daily Chart: closed below TL and below 5DMA

Hourly chart:
Last tick was 5645.05;
34 hr ema=5652
5day SMA=5668.62
5dayEMA=5645.52
only one ting in favour of bulls--- new high vis-a-vis yesterday(and then the subsequent downmove stopped short of yesterday's low) but a look at Hourly chart RSI and MACD (5,34,5) tells that they have made lower lows than yesterday---thus pointing to momentum being downwards now----


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