Nifty Page : 30-11-2012

Pre-Market View:
I had concluded yesterday's EOD post with following words and chart:
Hour charts,however, are not showing any signs of exhaustion so far---------- so more upside is left and no anticipatory shorts should be created. Barring any sudden domestic political upheaval/global break-down-- upside is likely to continue on Friday morning.

And following two charts would be helpful in placing the Nifty action into proper perspective:

Would wait till EOD to choose my preferred EW labels.
EOD Post:
The rally continues unabated----------

And C=A=5870 was breached and today's close was above that.

Hour charts were clearly exhausted compared to yesterday but it would be too early to say anything about the retracement of any degree setting in.

Nifty Page : 29-11-2012

Pre-Market View:

Series-Expiry Day. But like previous few expiry days, today's expiry also is likely to be un-eventful as action has already taken place on Tuesday dt 27.11.2012.
To me, the most important "event" for the day would be to see if 5739 gets breached or not.
Importance of 5739:
The upmove from 5548.35 so far has been seen as:
sw1=5548.35-5638.2=90.15 (as a diagonal)
sw2=5638.2-5593.55=44.65 (as Flat)
sw3=5593.55-5733.2*=139.65 (as Impulse)

Thus sw3 has so far done 155% of sw1 and till it does 161.8% of sw1 i.e.5739.45, the whole upmove from 5548.35 can be labelled as a Corrective ABC(zig-zag form).
Going above 5739.45 would mean the upmove from 5548.35 cannot be termed as a Corrective zig-zag ABC but will have to be seen as a 5w Impulse 12345 with extended 3rd wave (and 4th & 5th waves yet to play out)

And if 5739 gets breached then bullish sentiment would gain a major boost as proponents of following labels would get more excited:

 And following two labels would become Invalid:

But my bearish outlook would remain intact till 5815 survives as I would view the breach of 5739 as follows:

Now lets see through channels and Andew's Pitchfork as to what they project:

Pitchfork's median has not been tested so far and channel's UTL also is almost at the same level---- add to it the positive global sentiment--- chances of 5739 getting breached are on the higher side.

EOD post:
While the breach of 5739 was expected to take us above 5777(as mentioned in yesterday's EOD post also), the kind of upmove seen today was unexpected particularly because the previous trading session was also a day when a rally of 98 odd points was seen.
And by going above 5815, Nifty has put serious question mark on my labelling the upmove 5548-5733*(till yesterday) as part of Corrective to the down.
I can still argue that the Corrective from 5815 downwards is still continuing as:
A=5815-5583=232 (zig-zag)
B=5548(lowest point)-5833*=285 and can go upto 1.382*A=320=5868 as an Exp Flat wherein:
B(a)=5583-5777=194
B(b)=5777-5548=229(118%)
B(c)=5548-5833*=285(147% of B(a)  and can go upto 162% i.e 314=5862

But the argument that Nifty has attained its yearly high via a Corrective sounds strange & laughable to me.
So I would remind myself that a developing wave may unfold itself in many ways and devote some time to other aspects of Technical Analysis.

Price action has made a fresh top surpassing previous top of 5815 but has  manifested a negative divergence vis-a-vis RSI and MACD(12,26)---- as seen in the chart above.

Hour charts,however, are not showing any signs of exhaustion so far---------- so more upside is left and no anticipatory shorts should be created. Barring any sudden domestic political upheaval/global break-down-- upside is likely to continue on Friday morning.

Nifty Page : 21-11-2012

Pre-Market View:

Guiding channel currently is:

And it might get breached on the upside at the opening itself.
Resistance would be at
34 Hr EMA=5609
50DMA=5637
20DMA=5666

If we are able to close above the red TL shown in following chart:

we would be heading to touch the Median line shown in the following chart:

EW pattern for the downmove 5777-5548 is still fluid and it would not be prudent to mention various probable patterns at this point in time. May be by EOD,some more convincing/discernible pattern would emerge.
Lets have a look at Daily chart:
Resting at crucial TL
.

EOD POST:

Lets view all the above charts(as they stand at EOD):

34 Hr.EMA line has been conquered on closing basis and we are testing another Trendline which defines the UTL of the downmove from 5777.

Bouncing off the crucial long term TL(4770-5032-5216---5548) and hourly oversold zone,testing the median line looks quite probable.

50DMA at 5642 looks like the next stop:

EW wise some of my friends are labeling the downmove as under----

sw1=5777-5694=83

sw2=5694-5752=58

sw3=5752-5550=202

sw4=5550-5620*  as a Flat wherein

a=5550-5613

b=5613-5548

c=5548-5620

sw5 to start now and do 83 points=sw1

However I am not adhering to these labels(and I may very well be wrong) as momentum indicaters are not supportive. Also the fractals of sw3=5752-5550=202 are also questionable as

5752-5678=74

5678-5718=40

5718-5603=115(155%)

5603-5651=48

5651-5550=101

none of the subwaves are extended and therefore these fractals may be part of some other pattern which the developing wave is hiding in its sleeve.

Nifty Page: 16-11-2012

Pre-Market View:

And I have tried to construct Ya Impulse(from 5777 downwards) in following manner:

Thus today's likely range is 5580-5635

EOD Post:

The two charts posted in the morning have got fully honoured---
And currently they are looking as :

The second chart shows that the subwaves (copy-book style) proposed in the morning were not made and markets chose to continue and complete the Impulse Ya in their own style.
However, a word of caution is compulsory.
sw5 is quite capable of doing upto 1.618 of sw1=134=5516(5650-134) so tomorrow morning dependinf upon global concerns etc. we may open with a gap-down again.Although in that scenario,
the boundary of previous gap at 5527 is expected to act as a good support.

Next,logical move is Yb--a retracement of Ya=5777-5561*

Nifty Page : EOD 15-11-12

In my EOD 9-11-2012 post, I had mentioned through following charts:

So now we have got into Ya -- a 5w Impulse with an extended 3rd wave wherein:
sw1=5777-5693
sw2=5693-5752
sw3 in play and has done 5752-5603* so far

So now we have entered in "short at rise" market with 34 Hr ema being a good shorting point.

Target 1 is 5527--

Nifty Page: EOD 9.11.2012

Today's downmove was easily anticipated and by going below 5679,it has confirmed that the upmove 5583-5776 was indeed a 3 wave zig-zag.
And that zig-zag was followed by 5776-5677* downmove which as of now looks like a zig-zag again:

However if this downmove continues on Monday too and goes below 5635 then we will have to understand that an intermediate top has  been formed at 5776:

Otherwise going by " Deepawali factor" and the resilience shown by our markets--and it remains my preferred view also--- that we are in for a Double zig-zag WXY where W and X have got played and Y remains to be played and is likely to take us above 5815-----

And therefore on a higher degree,we would appear like this:

But let me repeat,if we go below 5635 then we would appear as below:

and the target in that case would be 5525

Nifty Page: EOD 8-11-2012

Another dip below today's low is essential before the upward journey begins again:

Nifty Page :EOD 6.11.2012

So the last trading hour saw 5722 getting breached and now it has become a "buy at dips" market till Deepawali at least which is likely to see a new yearly high.
The 5 wave Impulse looked complete at 11.00AM(with Nifty at 5721) and this top was done with a negative divergence so it  looked as if a 3wave Corrective would follow and retrace at least 38.2% of 5583-5721=138 i.e do 5721-53=5668  or test at least 34 Hr.EMA at 5675 but that didnot happen and as the TL is not breached we have to infer that the Impulse is still in progress:

Now 5958 has become a distinct possibility.
EW patternwise many Probabilities are there--- I would mention a few of those here for academic purpose only:

Nifty Page : EOD 2-11-2012

While a breach of 5642 was mentioned as an important point which would make Nifty's move to above 5690 imminent, an Impulsive wave for this upmove was the second preference.
My preferred Counts projected a 3 wave upmove from 5583 (and I had mentioned it in yesterday's EOD post also) to 5690+
But this upmove 5583-5711* has progressed as an Impulse:

And that has brought into focus the following pattern:

a=5815-5637

b=5637-5722

c=5722-5583

And now the most important point is 5722.
If 5722 is breached then going above 5815 would become almost a certainty but that would definitely not mean that we can not come below 5583 in November.
We may go above 5815 as a Flat ABC wherein
A(3 wave)=5815-5583=232
B(3wave) in play wherein
a=5583-5711*
b=downwards upto5650
c=upwards again to breach 5815
C= Impulse to come down again.

However the above Probability would come into play only when 5722 is breached.

Till then our current preferred Counts wherein:
sw1=5815-5637
sw2=5637-5722
sw3 in play:
(i)=5722-5583
(ii)a=5583-5711*
(ii)b=5711-5635(expected)
(ii)c=5635- up again but not above 5722
remain valid

And who knows the evening star may be in the making in Daily charts:

Nifty Page: EOD 01-11-2012

I had mentioned yesterday the importance of 5642 --- not only was it 34hr ema but also an important EW level. Now that 5642 is breached, a rise to 5690 is almost imminent but before that a fall again to (5583-5650=67)x0.62=42=5608 will happen as a rising wedge and negative divergence has got formed on 5 min charts :

EW labels -- my preferred ones-- are as follows:

sw1=5815-5637=178

sw2=5637-5722=85

sw3 in progress

(i)=5722-5583=139(a diagonal)

5722-5658=64

5658-5717=59

5717-5642=75

5642-5689=47

5689-5583=106

(ii)=5583-5650* in progress

a=5583-5650=67

b=5650--5608 (expected)

c=5608-5690+(expected)

The abovementioned "a" is seen by me as a 5 wave form in following way:

And why do I say 5690+?

Primarily because the end of 5th subwave of (i)=5689-5583 would be announced only when we go above 5689.

Alternatively,(ii) may be seen as over as following abc:

And in that case a fast and furious fall should take place tomorrow as sw3(iii) --- and not remain limited to 5608 as proposed in my preferred counts.

Nifty Page : 31-10-2012

At long last the RBI policy provided the trigger to break the month long range of 5729-5634.
And it has firmly set the 5715-5725 zone as a strong resistance area for future.

And trying to identify the support area for the downmove triggered by RBI policy,I find 5527-5540 to be the first support zone:

Pl note
the gap 5448-5527;
50 DMA at 5540;
Ascending red TL.

And on Hour charts:

I would love to give myself some more time before trying to find a pattern and fractals for the C4 from 5815 downwards:

But for the sideways move,following labels look appropriate to me:
First the corrective from 5637 to 5722 as a FLAT:

And then from 5722 to 5590* 

Whether this downmove from 5722 develops into a 5w Impulse:

sw1=5722-5658=64

sw2=5658-5717=59

sw3 in play as a 5w form

(i)=5717-5642=75

(ii)=5642-5689

(iii)=5689-5590* and should go on to test 75x1.62=122=5567

Or fizzles out as a diagonal wherein:

sw1=5722-5658=64

sw2=5658-5717=59

sw3=5717-5642=75

sw4=5642-5689

sw5=5689-5590*=99

remains to be seen.

And although absence of positive divergence and channels etc favour the downmove to 5527-5540 zone but global sentiments and build up may lead to the other alternative as well. 

EOD post:
Downward momentum could not continue and sideways move of first few hours was enough to post positive divergence in charts wherein yesterday's low was breached but RSI-14 didnot make fresh low.
Last hour saw a dash upwards which if breaches 5642 tomorrow morning --may go past 5690 as well.

This 5642 is an important EW level.
EW patternwise many probabilities exist:  posting a few for academically inclined