Nifty Page : 29-11-2012

Pre-Market View:

Series-Expiry Day. But like previous few expiry days, today's expiry also is likely to be un-eventful as action has already taken place on Tuesday dt 27.11.2012.
To me, the most important "event" for the day would be to see if 5739 gets breached or not.
Importance of 5739:
The upmove from 5548.35 so far has been seen as:
sw1=5548.35-5638.2=90.15 (as a diagonal)
sw2=5638.2-5593.55=44.65 (as Flat)
sw3=5593.55-5733.2*=139.65 (as Impulse)

Thus sw3 has so far done 155% of sw1 and till it does 161.8% of sw1 i.e.5739.45, the whole upmove from 5548.35 can be labelled as a Corrective ABC(zig-zag form).
Going above 5739.45 would mean the upmove from 5548.35 cannot be termed as a Corrective zig-zag ABC but will have to be seen as a 5w Impulse 12345 with extended 3rd wave (and 4th & 5th waves yet to play out)

And if 5739 gets breached then bullish sentiment would gain a major boost as proponents of following labels would get more excited:

 And following two labels would become Invalid:

But my bearish outlook would remain intact till 5815 survives as I would view the breach of 5739 as follows:

Now lets see through channels and Andew's Pitchfork as to what they project:

Pitchfork's median has not been tested so far and channel's UTL also is almost at the same level---- add to it the positive global sentiment--- chances of 5739 getting breached are on the higher side.

EOD post:
While the breach of 5739 was expected to take us above 5777(as mentioned in yesterday's EOD post also), the kind of upmove seen today was unexpected particularly because the previous trading session was also a day when a rally of 98 odd points was seen.
And by going above 5815, Nifty has put serious question mark on my labelling the upmove 5548-5733*(till yesterday) as part of Corrective to the down.
I can still argue that the Corrective from 5815 downwards is still continuing as:
A=5815-5583=232 (zig-zag)
B=5548(lowest point)-5833*=285 and can go upto 1.382*A=320=5868 as an Exp Flat wherein:
B(a)=5583-5777=194
B(b)=5777-5548=229(118%)
B(c)=5548-5833*=285(147% of B(a)  and can go upto 162% i.e 314=5862

But the argument that Nifty has attained its yearly high via a Corrective sounds strange & laughable to me.
So I would remind myself that a developing wave may unfold itself in many ways and devote some time to other aspects of Technical Analysis.

Price action has made a fresh top surpassing previous top of 5815 but has  manifested a negative divergence vis-a-vis RSI and MACD(12,26)---- as seen in the chart above.

Hour charts,however, are not showing any signs of exhaustion so far---------- so more upside is left and no anticipatory shorts should be created. Barring any sudden domestic political upheaval/global break-down-- upside is likely to continue on Friday morning.

Nifty Page : EOD 15-11-12

In my EOD 9-11-2012 post, I had mentioned through following charts:

So now we have got into Ya -- a 5w Impulse with an extended 3rd wave wherein:
sw1=5777-5693
sw2=5693-5752
sw3 in play and has done 5752-5603* so far

So now we have entered in "short at rise" market with 34 Hr ema being a good shorting point.

Target 1 is 5527--

Nifty Page: EOD 9.11.2012

Today's downmove was easily anticipated and by going below 5679,it has confirmed that the upmove 5583-5776 was indeed a 3 wave zig-zag.
And that zig-zag was followed by 5776-5677* downmove which as of now looks like a zig-zag again:

However if this downmove continues on Monday too and goes below 5635 then we will have to understand that an intermediate top has  been formed at 5776:

Otherwise going by " Deepawali factor" and the resilience shown by our markets--and it remains my preferred view also--- that we are in for a Double zig-zag WXY where W and X have got played and Y remains to be played and is likely to take us above 5815-----

And therefore on a higher degree,we would appear like this:

But let me repeat,if we go below 5635 then we would appear as below:

and the target in that case would be 5525

Nifty Page: EOD 8-11-2012

Another dip below today's low is essential before the upward journey begins again:

Nifty Page :EOD 6.11.2012

So the last trading hour saw 5722 getting breached and now it has become a "buy at dips" market till Deepawali at least which is likely to see a new yearly high.
The 5 wave Impulse looked complete at 11.00AM(with Nifty at 5721) and this top was done with a negative divergence so it  looked as if a 3wave Corrective would follow and retrace at least 38.2% of 5583-5721=138 i.e do 5721-53=5668  or test at least 34 Hr.EMA at 5675 but that didnot happen and as the TL is not breached we have to infer that the Impulse is still in progress:

Now 5958 has become a distinct possibility.
EW patternwise many Probabilities are there--- I would mention a few of those here for academic purpose only:

Nifty Page : EOD 2-11-2012

While a breach of 5642 was mentioned as an important point which would make Nifty's move to above 5690 imminent, an Impulsive wave for this upmove was the second preference.
My preferred Counts projected a 3 wave upmove from 5583 (and I had mentioned it in yesterday's EOD post also) to 5690+
But this upmove 5583-5711* has progressed as an Impulse:

And that has brought into focus the following pattern:

a=5815-5637

b=5637-5722

c=5722-5583

And now the most important point is 5722.
If 5722 is breached then going above 5815 would become almost a certainty but that would definitely not mean that we can not come below 5583 in November.
We may go above 5815 as a Flat ABC wherein
A(3 wave)=5815-5583=232
B(3wave) in play wherein
a=5583-5711*
b=downwards upto5650
c=upwards again to breach 5815
C= Impulse to come down again.

However the above Probability would come into play only when 5722 is breached.

Till then our current preferred Counts wherein:
sw1=5815-5637
sw2=5637-5722
sw3 in play:
(i)=5722-5583
(ii)a=5583-5711*
(ii)b=5711-5635(expected)
(ii)c=5635- up again but not above 5722
remain valid

And who knows the evening star may be in the making in Daily charts:

Nifty Page: EOD 01-11-2012

I had mentioned yesterday the importance of 5642 --- not only was it 34hr ema but also an important EW level. Now that 5642 is breached, a rise to 5690 is almost imminent but before that a fall again to (5583-5650=67)x0.62=42=5608 will happen as a rising wedge and negative divergence has got formed on 5 min charts :

EW labels -- my preferred ones-- are as follows:

sw1=5815-5637=178

sw2=5637-5722=85

sw3 in progress

(i)=5722-5583=139(a diagonal)

5722-5658=64

5658-5717=59

5717-5642=75

5642-5689=47

5689-5583=106

(ii)=5583-5650* in progress

a=5583-5650=67

b=5650--5608 (expected)

c=5608-5690+(expected)

The abovementioned "a" is seen by me as a 5 wave form in following way:

And why do I say 5690+?

Primarily because the end of 5th subwave of (i)=5689-5583 would be announced only when we go above 5689.

Alternatively,(ii) may be seen as over as following abc:

And in that case a fast and furious fall should take place tomorrow as sw3(iii) --- and not remain limited to 5608 as proposed in my preferred counts.

Nifty Page : 31-10-2012

At long last the RBI policy provided the trigger to break the month long range of 5729-5634.
And it has firmly set the 5715-5725 zone as a strong resistance area for future.

And trying to identify the support area for the downmove triggered by RBI policy,I find 5527-5540 to be the first support zone:

Pl note
the gap 5448-5527;
50 DMA at 5540;
Ascending red TL.

And on Hour charts:

I would love to give myself some more time before trying to find a pattern and fractals for the C4 from 5815 downwards:

But for the sideways move,following labels look appropriate to me:
First the corrective from 5637 to 5722 as a FLAT:

And then from 5722 to 5590* 

Whether this downmove from 5722 develops into a 5w Impulse:

sw1=5722-5658=64

sw2=5658-5717=59

sw3 in play as a 5w form

(i)=5717-5642=75

(ii)=5642-5689

(iii)=5689-5590* and should go on to test 75x1.62=122=5567

Or fizzles out as a diagonal wherein:

sw1=5722-5658=64

sw2=5658-5717=59

sw3=5717-5642=75

sw4=5642-5689

sw5=5689-5590*=99

remains to be seen.

And although absence of positive divergence and channels etc favour the downmove to 5527-5540 zone but global sentiments and build up may lead to the other alternative as well. 

EOD post:
Downward momentum could not continue and sideways move of first few hours was enough to post positive divergence in charts wherein yesterday's low was breached but RSI-14 didnot make fresh low.
Last hour saw a dash upwards which if breaches 5642 tomorrow morning --may go past 5690 as well.

This 5642 is an important EW level.
EW patternwise many probabilities exist:  posting a few for academically inclined

Nifty Page 30-10-2012

Today's RBI announcement is expected to be a trigger for break-out/breakdown from the range-bound sideways move that Nifty has been held captive into for almost four weeks now.
And given the government's conspicuous resolve to give buoyancy to financial markets,some rate cut (in CRR at least) cannot be ruled out. And that may give a 150 point jump up---

(Technically the blue channel support is not a very strong support as its a parallel line from two recent tops and that way the black TL is a stronger support line).
But if the rate cut doesnot come, a much deeper corrective would set in.Something which has been anticipated by me for long but not quite fructified so far:

EOD Post:

And it brings to the forefront the gap in 5448-5527 zone:

1.GAP
2.50DMA(5541)
3.Red TL

Ek bounce-up to banta hai boss--

Nifty Page : 19-10-2012

Pre-Market View:
5729-5637 has been identified as the range for sideways move for quite some time now.
For a few days,we traded at the lower end of the range and tested 5637 almost daily but couldnot break it.
Now we have come to the upper end of this range.
As mentioned in yesterday's EOD post, initial weakness is expected as 5 minute chart was showing a wedge formation and negative divergence was visible as Nifty was making fresh intraday tops:

However Daily charts have seen a convergence of 5/10/20 DMAs in 5678-5688 zone and unless we open below this zone,it may become a good support for intra-day longs.

Today being the last trading day of the week,it assumes extra importance as today's high and close would set the tone for coming week.An intraday high above 5752 and a close above 5676 would be indicating that the Corrective (expected from 5815 downwards) may take (still)longer time to show a deeper price-action.

EOD post:

I have attempted to label the sideways rangebound move in following manner:

And if indeed this was a Flat Corrective ABC (where C failed to go above A) then the question that first comes to mind is---which was the Impulse(or Daigonal) being retraced???
Distortion caused in charts( by the "freak" trade earlier to this Corrective) doesnot allow me to "convincingly" answer that but a corelation with Nifty Future chart tells me that 5815-5637 "can" be labelled as a leading diagonal and the above illustrated Flat was a retracement of that.

And as C of this Flat failed to go above A, next move should be a fast and furious one--- pointing to a gap-down opening on Monday.
Caution: Attempts to label developing waves are at the most "guesstimates". The above-mentioned "guesstimate" would become invalid if we tick above 5722.

Nifty Page: 18-10-2012

Pre-Market View:
The sideways move from 9-10-2012 till yesterday has one indisputable feature that it has been making lower highs and lower lows. But to assign it any pattern would be very difficult ---it might be a running triangle or a combination of zig-zags and flats-- and to trade it on the basis of any "guesstimated" pattern should be avoided.
This sideways consolidating move( I prefer to see it as distribution at top) has resulted in 5/10/20 DMAs converge in a small 5676-5694 band which would act as a good resistance in case of gap-ups caused by global sentiments.

A small gap-up and then a drift downwards throughout the day has been the market pattern for last few days--- today also the opening would be in the above mentioned convergence zone of 5676-5694 but after that whether any firm traction will take place or the usual listlessness follows,lets see---

EOD post:
Some one-way move during the day and a close above 5DMA(5677) but 5729 remains unconquered and a rising wedge & negative divergence on 5 minute charts indicates a weak opening tomorrow.

Nifty Page: 17-10-2012

Pre-Market View:
For past few days I have been highlighting 5729 and 5637 as two important price points andbreach of anyone of  these to decide further pattern.
And when 5637 broke down yesterday,the easiest way forward was to see the labels as:
(mentioned in EOD post yesterday also):
SW1=5815-5666=149
SW2=5666-5729=63
SW3=5729 downwards as a 5w Impulse
(i)=5729-5637=92
(ii)=5637-5725=88
(iii)=5725--- to do minimum 1.62x92=149=5575
And being in (iii) of sw3 a gap-down today should have been the most obvious inference.
However,global clues have been indicating a gap-up--- and that means we might not have begun (iii) of sw3 and may still be in (ii) of sw3.(and that's a hallmark of EW labels where developing waves can only have guesstimates till they end).
(ii) of sw3 was seen by me as a wxy wherein:
w=5637-5725(3wave)
x=5725-5651(3wave)
y=5651-5714(3wave)
This can be illustrated in charts as follows:

And as y "failed"(ie failed to go above w),next downmove was fast and ended below the starting point of w(5637).

These labels may still hold if we donot breach 5714 on the upside as today's gap-up(expected) may be only a retracement of downmove 5714-5636 and may remain limited to 5698(80% of 5714-5636).
However,if we breach 5714 then we may still be in (ii) of sw3 in following manner:

 And (iii) of sw3 may start later.

And all this discussion has one prominent point---
5729 should not be breached.

EOD post:
Only take-away from today's trading session was a lower low.
Otherwise a listless day--- closed below 20DMA and 5/20DMA bearish cross.

Nifty Page : 16-10-2012

Pre-Market View:
As mentioned in my yesterday's EOD post, no clear pattern is identifiable currently and so far the expected Corrective C4 (5815 downwards) has not given any indication of its form which may either be a zig-zag,Flat, Triangle or a combination of these.
The expectation that consecutive closures below 5DMA would give more momentum to downwards Corrective has not materialized.
5729 remains an important price point on the upside.
Its breach on the upside would open the gates for a move upto 5784

EOD post:
So 5729 survives and 5637 got breached.
And that has tilted the scales in favour of Bears. and , therefore, preferred labels now are:
SW1=5815-5666=149
SW2=5666-5729=63
SW3=5729 downwards as a 5w Impulse
5729-5637=92
5637-5725=88
5725--- to do minimum 1.62x92=149=5575

Bearish engulfing candle and 5/20 bearish cross are most prominent features today