Nifty Page:27-8-2012

Of the various possible labels for the current upmove from 5033,the following labels look most convincing to me:

So the 4th wave from 5448 downwards--- as abc-- might have done only its "a" as a 3 wave form:
5448-5394=54
5394-5421=27
5421-5371*=50
and now the "b" upwards may do 90-138% of this "a" i.e. may go upto 5442-5477
and then "c" downwards would come below 5371 again.
This is what I foresee as playing out till Expiry.
On charts this Probability may be illustrated as follows:

[Please note that 4th subwave has been seen as playing out as a Flat in above Probability.In case it fans out as a zig-zag the Probability would be different ]

And channelwise,we are likely to move in following channel:

And as I post this channel and notice the closing below channel and below 34 hr.ema, I feel like illustrating the 4th as a zigzag also:

As a zig-zag,4th may fan out as an abc wherein "a" is a diagonal(so Monday may not show us a tick above 5420.85):

(in view of positive Friday closing in global market above Probability is also quite likely). However, by Monday if sentiments change then this 4th as zig-zag may take us down to 5330 straight away(as an Impulse "a") before returning to 5405(as "b") again:

 Hope above illustrations would be quite useful for EW enthussiasts.
Others,who blame me for going wrong with my EW labels,would also understand how difficult it is to choose from various Probabilities and "may" appreciate the effort that goes into EW analysis.

Tradewise,in case of gap-down--we may go upto 5330 and come back to 5400.
In case of gap-up,if we do not go above 5421,we may oscillate in 5420-5360 range
And if we go above 5421 we may keep moving up to 5477 before returning.

EOD:
Of the three Probability mentioned in the morning,the one which came closest was:
" In case of gap-up,if we do not go above 5421,we may oscillate in 5420-5360 range"
And as we were not able to cross 5400,instead of 5420-5360 ,we got a range of 5400-5340.
And I see appox the same range for tomorrow as the subwave 4 seems to have taken the following form:
(zig-zag abc):
a=5448-5394=54(Impulse)
b=5394-5421=27
c=can not go below 1.62*a=5334 as an Impulse or Diagonal( both 5 wave forms)
and so far
(i)=5421-5374=47
(ii)=5374-5399=25(Flat)
(iii)=5399-5347*=52 so far
If the zig-zag abc has to come true then this c has to play out as a diagonal meaning 
(iv) should start up now and go above 5374 but not above 5399;
then(v) downwards by more than 52 points  

And then there is the Probability of this downmove doing a double-zig-zag instead of the above mentioned zig-zag(as illustradted below):

But if Nifty does not follow the above illustrated pattern and keeps of moving down to below 5321as shown in chart below:

 then instead of subwave 4(retracing subwave3=5078-5448),current retracement would be taken as a larger degree retracement of wave 5033-5448=415 and levels of 5200 are likely in the current downmove.

Channelwise,above Probabilities are illustrated below:

While black channel represents smaller degree corrective. Breach of Black channel would bring the red channel into picture and that would represent higher degree Corrective