I went long yesterday because I believed B was in play as an Expanded Flat in following manner:
B(a)=5255-5333=78
B(b)=5333-5234=99 as a triangle
B(c)=5234-5278*--after breaking the TL was expected to test 20DMA at 5330
But it did not happen that way and the rally seen in last hour on Monday proved to be a damp-squib.
Then where do my EW labels stand?
Once below 5225 ,the Expanded B labels get invalidated.(as B(b) cannot be more than 1.38*B(a).
Then where did B end?
Did it end at 5333 and C began from there?
As mentioned earlier also,A=5448-5255=193 lasted 34 hours and B=5255-5333=78 lasting in only 5 hours didnot go down well timewise.
One option was following chart
But here B(c)=5234-5278=44 is less than 0.62*B(a)=5255-5333=78 so it was rejected.
The other option was:
On Daily Charts, an important Trendline is under test--- illustrated in yesterday's EOD post and being reproduced here:
The MACD histogram bars ---first indicaters of increasing/decreasing momentum---doesnot show any let up in downward momentum as yet.
50 DMA at 5265 and 100 DMA at 5161--these two may act as defining frontiers.
EOD
The upper range of 50DMA was tested,lower range test may take some more time.
Tomorrow we may test 5190 and then come up again:
Daily charts: I feel red channel would be tested:
B(a)=5255-5333=78
B(b)=5333-5234=99 as a triangle
B(c)=5234-5278*--after breaking the TL was expected to test 20DMA at 5330
But it did not happen that way and the rally seen in last hour on Monday proved to be a damp-squib.
Then where do my EW labels stand?
Once below 5225 ,the Expanded B labels get invalidated.(as B(b) cannot be more than 1.38*B(a).
Then where did B end?
Did it end at 5333 and C began from there?
As mentioned earlier also,A=5448-5255=193 lasted 34 hours and B=5255-5333=78 lasting in only 5 hours didnot go down well timewise.
One option was following chart
But here B(c)=5234-5278=44 is less than 0.62*B(a)=5255-5333=78 so it was rejected.
The other option was:
And to me it looks acceptable.
So we have:
A=5448-5255=193
B=5255-5333(ending at 5296)
C=5296 downwards by minimum 0.62*A=120=5176;optimum C=A=5103.
The form of this C can either be an Impulse or Diagonal.
So I would retain my Shorts either upto these levels or get stopped out at 5296.
The MACD histogram bars ---first indicaters of increasing/decreasing momentum---doesnot show any let up in downward momentum as yet.
50 DMA at 5265 and 100 DMA at 5161--these two may act as defining frontiers.
EOD
The upper range of 50DMA was tested,lower range test may take some more time.
Tomorrow we may test 5190 and then come up again:
Daily charts: I feel red channel would be tested:
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