Nifty Page: 20-06-2013(EOD)

The following two charts illustrate my thought process till today morning:

Both the charts illustrate the probability of a Butterfly/Garley Harmonic pattern XABCD developing where the downmove from 5863 was seen as the arm BC which could do maximum 0.886*AB ---i.e. downmove upto maximum 5703 was conceptualized.
A logical inference was to go long near to this point with a stop-loss at 5682(prev low) --- and the same was proposed on my FB group post FB group Jackpot Trades

However the low seen in the form of Morning Star was breached and we have to rework our guiding pattern.

First of all, a look at Trendlines and supports:

This shows 5630 and 5548 as next support-points.

Also patternwise I would recall the previous pattern posted in my 14-06-2013(EOD) post

It specifies the maximum downside at 5621.

And on a smaller degree we can see Shark pattern developing below 5682 with optimum downside at 1.27 (5634)and maximum at 1.618(5571) :

Somehow, I am not alarmed and am looking at this downmove as an opportunity to cherry-picking.
And my compilation of closing rates successive settlements during past one year tells me that looking for an opportunity to go long at 5630 and 5548 may not be a bad idea 

Settlement	Closing
26-Apr-12	5189
31-May-12	4924.25	-264.75
28-Jun-12	5149.15	224.9
26-Jul-12	5043	-106.15
30-Aug-12	5315.05	272.05
27-Sep-12	5649.5	334.45
25-Oct-12	5705.3	55.8
29-Nov-12	5825	119.7
27-Dec-12	5870.1	45.1
31-Jan-13	6034.75	164.65
28-Feb-13	5693.05	-341.7
28-Mar-13	5682.5	-10.55
25-Apr-13	5916.3	233.8
30-May-13	6124	207.7

Above compilation suggests that no matter Nifty is rising or falling, the closing prices between two settlements are not more than 350 points.

And that pegs the lowest June closing at 6124-350=5774

Only question is how to find a proper entry point??

The easiest way to illustrate it (using today's chart) is something like this:

And the same can be used as a trailing stop-loss for those holding shorts