Saturday, 20 April 2013

Week-end Thoughts: Using different tools

Trendlines & AP Tool:




Above chart illustrates how three crucial lines got tested on Thursday.

The next crucial trendline is illustrated below:

Harmonic Patterns

 Harmonic Pattern BAT  had indicated the upmove upto 5745:
But as we moved above 5745, I had to go a degree higher.But none of the more popular Harmonic patterns like Gartley,Bat,Butterfly, Crab or Shark was helping.And then I felt as if we are in a Three Drives Pattern

chart-illustration
Above figure has been reproduced from ForexSOHO.com


And as is clear from the guidelines--- an upmove of more than 78.6% of (5972-5477) i.e. beyond 5866 is not anticipated by this pattern.

EW Pattern:



Yb has retraced 64% of Ya and should be (ideally) taking a Corrective form but in these days of algo-trades you never know. As mentioned in my previous post also, the retracements during current downmove from 6112 have failed to comply with copy-book corrective forms.

Wolfe-Waves:

Two prominent Wolfe-waves are visible. While the green one is nearing culmination, white one would have to see great momentum in price action--- so as to breach the depicted TL and invalidate the Harmonic & EW labels.

 And while no let up in momentum is noticeable in Daily charts(shown above),Hour charts are showing negative divergence in MACD with RSI-14 being in over-bought zone but not showing any divergence.

So despite the last hour candle being a shooting-star (which requires the next candle not going above it to be declared an evening star), the upmove is likely to continue a bit more next week with fib 78.6% retracement of Ya at 5866 being the most important threshold.

Weekly pivot is at 5692 and only a close below it should be seen as commencement of Yc(in EW pattern) or of 3(in Three Drives Pattern).

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