Nifty Page: 26-03-2013(EOD)

Lower Highs and lower Lows--- the most basic definition of downtrend has been depicted in the chart above.

Now added a line and see how a change in perspective takes place:

While yesterday's opening was above this downmove containing Trendline but it didnot sustain above it .
But today it consolidated and moved above it,showing weakening of downmove.
And now,lets add a momentum indicater to the chart:

As the price is making new lows, MACD is failing(to make fresh lows) and this Price-Momentum Divergence alongwith breaking of TL confirms weakening of downmove.
And as we breach the nearest High point, talks of downmove getting "reversed" or "retraced" would get louder.

This is the crux of Technical Analysis--- which many of my young friends keep on asking about, foxed by hyperbolic EW/Harmonic Patterns, Astro- Numeral Gann & Fibo and what not----
Whenever an Andrews Pitchfork is drawn or pivot points are getting calculated, all we are trying to do is to calculate mean deviation. Simple understanding of Mean Deviation and Momentum is enough for fruitful trading.

New low and persistent positive divergence on Hour chart---
testing 5726-5750 looks likely to me

Happy Holi to all of you !!!!