Nifty Page: 11-12-2012

Pre-Market View:

Though we made a fresh low yesterday(vis-a-vis a day before),we could not go below 5882(minimum necessary to complete the Leading Diagonal pattern) and rose up to breach the descending trendline.
That shows the momentum of downward retracement didnot pick up momentum and got converted into sideways move instead.
Hour chart shows it couldnot breach the 34 Hr EMA support and bounced up from there.

Close below trendline and bearish 5/10 Hr.ema cross as well as MACD 5,34,5  bearish cross point to the negative bias continuing.

However, the failure of MACD line to go below zero confirms that momentum downwards failed to gain force yesterday.

Today's morning session may see us moving up to 5935 levels before sliding down
The extent of that downfall would indicate further Nifty moves.

EOD Post:

While lack of strength in downmove yesterday was visible and mentioned in Pre-market view,breach of previous high was not expected---
And once the previous high got broken early in the morning, it made me inclined to view the Impulse from 5548 upwards as ending in a diagonal wherein:
sw1=5548-5638=90
sw2=5638-5593=45
sw3=5593-5927=334
sw4=5927-5839=88
sw5=5839 upwards--- and perceived this Ending Diagonal as follows:

But it didnot turn out that way also.

By EOD , the downward momentum which was missing in yesterday's session -- had clearly asserted itself.
Though the final word on end of Impulse(from 5548 upwards) would come only with a breach of 5838---- close below 34 Hr.EMA has tilted the balance in favour of Retracement having already set in.
50% retracement of 5548-5965=417 means 5757
61.8% means 5710
But ,till 5838 gets breached--caution advised as the top formation has not been clearly understood as yet.