Pre-Market View:
Series-Expiry Day. But like previous few expiry days, today's expiry also is likely to be un-eventful as action has already taken place on Tuesday dt 27.11.2012.
To me, the most important "event" for the day would be to see if 5739 gets breached or not.
Importance of 5739:
The upmove from 5548.35 so far has been seen as:
sw1=5548.35-5638.2=90.15 (as a diagonal)
sw2=5638.2-5593.55=44.65 (as Flat)
sw3=5593.55-5733.2*=139.65 (as Impulse)
Thus sw3 has so far done 155% of sw1 and till it does 161.8% of sw1 i.e.5739.45, the whole upmove from 5548.35 can be labelled as a Corrective ABC(zig-zag form).
Going above 5739.45 would mean the upmove from 5548.35 cannot be termed as a Corrective zig-zag ABC but will have to be seen as a 5w Impulse 12345 with extended 3rd wave (and 4th & 5th waves yet to play out)
And if 5739 gets breached then bullish sentiment would gain a major boost as proponents of following labels would get more excited:
And following two labels would become Invalid:
But my bearish outlook would remain intact till 5815 survives as I would view the breach of 5739 as follows:
Now lets see through channels and Andew's Pitchfork as to what they project:
Pitchfork's median has not been tested so far and channel's UTL also is almost at the same level---- add to it the positive global sentiment--- chances of 5739 getting breached are on the higher side.
EOD post:
While the breach of 5739 was expected to take us above 5777(as mentioned in yesterday's EOD post also), the kind of upmove seen today was unexpected particularly because the previous trading session was also a day when a rally of 98 odd points was seen.
And by going above 5815, Nifty has put serious question mark on my labelling the upmove 5548-5733*(till yesterday) as part of Corrective to the down.
I can still argue that the Corrective from 5815 downwards is still continuing as:
A=5815-5583=232 (zig-zag)
B=5548(lowest point)-5833*=285 and can go upto 1.382*A=320=5868 as an Exp Flat wherein:
B(a)=5583-5777=194
B(b)=5777-5548=229(118%)
B(c)=5548-5833*=285(147% of B(a) and can go upto 162% i.e 314=5862
But the argument that Nifty has attained its yearly high via a Corrective sounds strange & laughable to me.
So I would remind myself that a developing wave may unfold itself in many ways and devote some time to other aspects of Technical Analysis.
Price action has made a fresh top surpassing previous top of 5815 but has manifested a negative divergence vis-a-vis RSI and MACD(12,26)---- as seen in the chart above.
Hour charts,however, are not showing any signs of exhaustion so far---------- so more upside is left and no anticipatory shorts should be created. Barring any sudden domestic political upheaval/global break-down-- upside is likely to continue on Friday morning.
Series-Expiry Day. But like previous few expiry days, today's expiry also is likely to be un-eventful as action has already taken place on Tuesday dt 27.11.2012.
To me, the most important "event" for the day would be to see if 5739 gets breached or not.
Importance of 5739:
The upmove from 5548.35 so far has been seen as:
sw1=5548.35-5638.2=90.15 (as a diagonal)
sw2=5638.2-5593.55=44.65 (as Flat)
sw3=5593.55-5733.2*=139.65 (as Impulse)
Thus sw3 has so far done 155% of sw1 and till it does 161.8% of sw1 i.e.5739.45, the whole upmove from 5548.35 can be labelled as a Corrective ABC(zig-zag form).
Going above 5739.45 would mean the upmove from 5548.35 cannot be termed as a Corrective zig-zag ABC but will have to be seen as a 5w Impulse 12345 with extended 3rd wave (and 4th & 5th waves yet to play out)
And if 5739 gets breached then bullish sentiment would gain a major boost as proponents of following labels would get more excited:
And following two labels would become Invalid:
But my bearish outlook would remain intact till 5815 survives as I would view the breach of 5739 as follows:
Now lets see through channels and Andew's Pitchfork as to what they project:
EOD post:
While the breach of 5739 was expected to take us above 5777(as mentioned in yesterday's EOD post also), the kind of upmove seen today was unexpected particularly because the previous trading session was also a day when a rally of 98 odd points was seen.
And by going above 5815, Nifty has put serious question mark on my labelling the upmove 5548-5733*(till yesterday) as part of Corrective to the down.
I can still argue that the Corrective from 5815 downwards is still continuing as:
A=5815-5583=232 (zig-zag)
B=5548(lowest point)-5833*=285 and can go upto 1.382*A=320=5868 as an Exp Flat wherein:
B(a)=5583-5777=194
B(b)=5777-5548=229(118%)
B(c)=5548-5833*=285(147% of B(a) and can go upto 162% i.e 314=5862
But the argument that Nifty has attained its yearly high via a Corrective sounds strange & laughable to me.
So I would remind myself that a developing wave may unfold itself in many ways and devote some time to other aspects of Technical Analysis.
Price action has made a fresh top surpassing previous top of 5815 but has manifested a negative divergence vis-a-vis RSI and MACD(12,26)---- as seen in the chart above.
Hour charts,however, are not showing any signs of exhaustion so far---------- so more upside is left and no anticipatory shorts should be created. Barring any sudden domestic political upheaval/global break-down-- upside is likely to continue on Friday morning.
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