Elliot Wave Labels:
On a higher degree:
Now the issue is whether C3 is complete and C4 started--
or
C3 is still in play and current downmove is a subwave within it.
As C3 is seen as a 3 wave form(zig-zag) wherein mostly (i)=(iii) and we have
C3(i)=5033-5448=415
C3(iii)=5216-5649=433 so it can be argued that C3 is over.
However,C3(iii) in itself has to be a 5 wave form and if we try to find 5 subwaves in 5216-5649 then probability of there being one more spurt above 5649 can not be ruled out entirely:
And it is these uncertainties that make stock-markets risky.
And in this context,5 DMA and 34 Hr EMA becomes important clue.
Currently 5DMA =5555
34 Hr.EMA=5544
The more Nifty trades above or below these levels, the more clarity of EW labels would emerge.
Trendlines:
Hour Chart:
Momentumwise:
.png)
5/10 Hr emas bearish cross and MACD 5,34,5 bearish cross are indicating increasing downward momentum but as these are lagging indicaters,one good session can transform them
Global markets are indicating a positive opening but domestic uncertainties look heavy.
My suggestion would be to short at rise with stop-loss at 5631.
Target sub 5216. Obviously it is a positional call.
Intraday range 5530-5590 looks most probable.
EOD Post
Once 5631 was breached,it was clear that the Probability being consistently mentioned but not traded---that of one final spurt remaining as sw5 of C3(iii) is becoming a reality.
In the process,two questions got answered-- one was the absence of negative divergence as we moved down from 5649( today,we made fresh high at 5720, with a negative divergence in Hour charts) and secondly,the channel in play had not been tested at its upper trendline( to it got tested).
So with
Channel top getting tested
EW wise 5 waves getting completed from 5216
5216-5375=159
5375-5333=42
5333-5649=316
5649-5538=111
5538-5720=182
Negative divergence in Hour charts (while Daily charts in overbought zone)
.png)
My conditions for taking a short position were fulfilled and the 5400pe(oct) which were booked partially yesterday,were refilled today.
Daily Chart:
On a higher degree:
or
C3 is still in play and current downmove is a subwave within it.
As C3 is seen as a 3 wave form(zig-zag) wherein mostly (i)=(iii) and we have
C3(i)=5033-5448=415
C3(iii)=5216-5649=433 so it can be argued that C3 is over.
However,C3(iii) in itself has to be a 5 wave form and if we try to find 5 subwaves in 5216-5649 then probability of there being one more spurt above 5649 can not be ruled out entirely:
And in this context,5 DMA and 34 Hr EMA becomes important clue.
Currently 5DMA =5555
34 Hr.EMA=5544
The more Nifty trades above or below these levels, the more clarity of EW labels would emerge.
Trendlines:
Hour Chart:
5 minutes Chart:
Momentumwise:
.png)
Global markets are indicating a positive opening but domestic uncertainties look heavy.
My suggestion would be to short at rise with stop-loss at 5631.
Target sub 5216. Obviously it is a positional call.
Intraday range 5530-5590 looks most probable.
EOD Post
Once 5631 was breached,it was clear that the Probability being consistently mentioned but not traded---that of one final spurt remaining as sw5 of C3(iii) is becoming a reality.
In the process,two questions got answered-- one was the absence of negative divergence as we moved down from 5649( today,we made fresh high at 5720, with a negative divergence in Hour charts) and secondly,the channel in play had not been tested at its upper trendline( to it got tested).
So with
Channel top getting tested
EW wise 5 waves getting completed from 5216
5216-5375=159
5375-5333=42
5333-5649=316
5649-5538=111
5538-5720=182
Negative divergence in Hour charts (while Daily charts in overbought zone)
.png)
Daily Chart:
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