Nifty Page:17-09-2012

SGX Nifty is indicating another gap-up, but it may be last one before a downslide to sub-5216 begins.
EW wise we are in C3 --a 3 wave form--- wherein C3iii is approaching a stage of C3iii=C3i=415=5631; Next target would be C3iii=1.236*C3i=5729

Channel & Momentum:
We are likely to test the UTL of the channel today. RSI-14 is already in overbought zone.

Today being the day for RBI policy, it may very well act as a trigger for future course.
Though I am expecting a downslide to begin as C3iii=C3i is going to be done on opening itself. But this Ciii can go upto 1.618*Ci and therefore RBI policy and some rate cut may give further fillip and we may see 5730 by EOD.

EOD
RBI policy became a non-event and today's gap-up may very well be an exhaustion move.
I have initiated shorts via October 5400 pes --target being sub 5216.
As mentioned in the morning--- C3iii=C3i=5631 was done in the opening itself .Today's downmove can also be seen as a move to cover gap from Friday's high and tomorrow we may attempt to test the following UTL:

And those who wish to find 5 waves in Impulse 5216-5649* may find today's downslide as sw4 of Impulse:

And we may see another spurt up as sw5
But with so many gap-ups its always difficult to pinpoint the subwaves.