Nifty Page:10-9-2012

The upmove from 5033 would have made an ideal 5 wave Impulse form in following manner:

But the downmove from 5448,went much deeper and we have to believe that the Impulse from 5033 ended at 5448 and the downmove 5448-5216 was its Corrective which retraced 56%

Is the Corrective over??

I can only say that a 3 wave was over at 5216 and it would be only above 5535 that we can say that the Corrective was over at 5216 because this 3 wave form 5448-5216=232 can be only A of an Expanded Flat Corrective ABC with B capable of doing upto 138% of A=317+5216=5533

Or we may just do a Double Zig-zag combo WXY wherein W=5448-5216;X is currently in play and Y downward may come later:

This small example should be enough to understand the Probabilities that exist. And why we must use other TA indicaters also to follow the markets.

One of these is MACD .And for Hour charts I use 5,34,5 instead of the regular 12,26,9 which is more useful for Daily charts.

Histogram bars indicate the strength and along with the height/depth of swings can be used as tools for observing positive/negative divergence.And x-overs can be seen as opportunities for creating longs or shorts.

In current context,decreasing length of MACD histogram bars is an indicative of diminishing strength of upmove but as no bearish cross-over in MACD line & 5 EMA line has occurred,one should desist from creating shorts. Though a look at candles and the tail in last Hour's candle indicate weakness in upmove--

Gaps:

One gap was filled and another created:

Creation of gap in itself is indication of bullishness and instead of trading dips,I would advise to use them for going long.

Channels:

EOD

Tiredness in Upward move was visible today and the MACD 5.34.5 on Hour charts gave a bearish cross-over on Hour charts:

However,whether this "pause" gets converted into a retracement or not remains to be seen as Daily charts have shown Bullish cross-over:

Hourly charts have gone in overbought zone and would need a cooling-off.Whether it comes now or after another 50 point upward grind is not yet clear--