Nifty Page: 28.8.12

Labels update(Hour charts)please see it in continuation with yesterday's chart. Link Nifty Page: 27.8.12:

34Hrema(currently at 5386) an important resistance now.
As explained in yesterday's EOD post,4th wave looks incomplete as yet and following patterns are probable:

And in case the last pattern takes shape,it would no longer be labelled as 4th and the downmove would continue much longer to sub-5200 levels.
Channelwise,following two Probabilities:

And it would be highly improper if I donot mention this TL on Daily charts:

EOD:
So the black channel provided support for the day:

But structurally(EW patternwise), it has been confirmed that the downmove so far=5448-5312* was not a 3 wave form but a 5 wave form---simplest of which can be seen as below:

5448-5394=54
5394-5421=27
5421-5332=89
5332-5352=20
5352-5312=40
And now this 5 wave form=5448-5312=136 would be retraced ---likely upto5380(50%)

It may also be possible that 5 wave form is still in progress as follows:

w1=5448-5394=54
w2=5394-5421=27
w3=5421-5312* in play
(i)=5421-5374=47
(ii)=5374-5399=25
(iii)5399-5312=87(185%)
(iv)=5312-5344=32
(v)=5344-5326* likely to go below 5312
then W4 to come up---

As the wave is in progress,it is not possible to say where it would end but one thing is clear that this downmove is a larger degree corrective----most probably a retracement of 5033-5448=415 and therefore its going even below 5200 is quite possible(61.8% retracement)
My inclination is to take it as ABC retracement wherein:
A=5448-5312* is either over or in play(as discussed earlier);
If A is taken as over at 5312 then B likely to do upto 5380(50% retracement)
Then C to start downward journey---
On Daily charts we can see it as follows:

While MACD 12,26 has given bearish x-over, 5/10 DMA cross-over is also on the verge.
However,in view of Expiry,I donot expect the C downwards to begin soon.
We may play out the B wave till expiry day---
And lets look at the long t/f trendline (mentioned in the morning also) once again: