Sunday 29 July 2012

Larsen & Toubro

Whether we take it as C4 or as 4th arm of the Contracting Triangle,the upmove from 970 has to take the form of a zigzag and lets have a close look at this upmove from 970:
Please notice the trendline resistance,over bought RSI and then bearish cross-over in MACD--a perfect combination for Jackpot trade again----
EOD 02-08-2012
Or as per Hour Chart one can wait for lower trendline break to go short with Stop loss at nearest high and target below 1300
EOD 10.8.12
As mentioned elsewhere also, L & T broke the above shown wedge and did show initial signs of breakdown but recovered smartly to surprise and sustained at upper range:
Now on daily charts the channels appear as below:





Further  detailed updates on L & T are available on these link:
Jackpot Trade No.1
Jackpot Trade No. 3

22-09-2012 Update:
And to cut the long story short now we are at following state of labels:

Upmove in L & T at higher degree --in seen as Zig-zag ABC wherein
 A=969-1532=563
B=1532-1102=430
C=A means 1665 max C=1.618*A=2015
But C can either be a simple 5 wave Impulse or a 5 w Diagonal.
As a 5 wave Impulse either 3rd extended or 5th extended
If 3rd extended then:
C1=1106-1442=336
C2=1442-1309(as flat)
C3(extended)=minimum1.62*336=545+1309=1853
If 5th extended then
C1=1106-1442=336
C2=1442-1309
C3=1309-1597=288  must continue till 1650 to allow EW rule of 3rd not being shortest, but to reach 1650 looks Improbable because within C3:
(i)=1309-1387=78
(ii)=1387-1356=31
(iii)=1356-1597=241[300% of (i)]
(iv)=1597-1510=87
(v)=1510-1650*=140(180% of (i)]
And both (iii) and (v) should not be extended.

So we are left with two Probabilities only:
Either C as a 5w Impulse with extended 3rd
OR
C as a 5w Diagonal.

In case of C playing out as 5w Impulse(with 3rd extended), our labels would appear as:
C1=1106-1442=336
C2=1442-1309(as Flat)
C3=1309 upwards in progress as a 5w Impulse wherein
(i)=1309-1597* nearing its end
(ii) may retrace 80%=

And if  C  be seen as 5w Diagonal our labels would appear as:
C1=1106-1442=336
C2=1442-1309(as Flat)
C3=1309-1597* nearing its end

C4 downwards to start now
Weekly update 28-09-2012:
All things remain same.
The Impulse from 1309 upwards (which was mentioned last week as 1309-1597* nearing its end) has tested 1620 and I would still be calling it "nearing its end" as the top has not been confirmed so far:
Last week I was thinking of this Impulse as follows:



(i)=1309-1387=78
(ii)=1387-1356=31
(iii)=1356-1597=241[300% of (i)]
(iv)=1597-1510=87
(v)=1510-above 1597 but below 1637
Either this (v) is playing out as a diagonal or we may have to label it differently as:



(i)=1309-1387=78
(ii)=1387-1356=31
(iii)=1356-1617=261
(iv)=1617-1551=66
(v)=1551-1619=68

Negative divergence,which was apparent in Hour charts only till previous weekend,is now apparent in Daily charts as well.
Weekly pivot is at 1589. As we start trading below it,weakness would get manifested.


2 comments:

  1. Sir,

    I have been trading only the NF for the last 1 year. Today in the morning I was having this thought process to do more chart studies on Individual components of Nifty, so that i can take direct short or long positions on individual nifty stocks. And then i see this post, definitely not a coincidence , God is showing me the path.

    My though process is Nifty consist of 50. At any given point of time, Some stocks are bullish and some stocks are bearish and some stocks or neutral. IF I trade nifty , I can either be short or long or neutral. But If I create a portfolio of LONG short combination, using EW and other studies, I can long those Nifty stocks which are bullish and short those Nifty stocks which are bearish , still do better than the performance of Nifty

    Your post on L&T has ignited my reaserach spirit, which I have lost after Satyam Fiasco.

    Thankyou

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sir Ji:

    Please do update L&T counts as well.

    thanks,
    Sujeet

    ReplyDelete